Private investment office

We want to be right, early.

Following the herd is popular. It is comfortable, there is plenty of research to support it, and nobody has to explain why they own the same things as everyone else.

We invest our own money, and we are willing to look further afield.

Some of the assumptions investors have made about the United States may no longer be as reliable as they once were. Better returns may be available elsewhere. We diversify internationally, have a long-term bias toward real estate, and take markets seriously that many American investors dismiss without spending much time on them.

There are risks in doing that. There are also risks in staying concentrated in one country because it worked well in the past.

Our approach Read the current house view

Our approach

We look for places where the conventional view may be wrong.

That does not mean taking the other side of every popular trade. Sometimes the obvious answer is obvious because it is correct.

We want to understand what people are assuming, how long those assumptions have been in place, and whether the price still makes sense if one of them changes.

This is especially important now. American markets have benefited from deep liquidity, strong institutions, a trusted currency, and the willingness of global investors to pay a premium for all of it. We do not assume those advantages disappear tomorrow. We also do not assume they last forever.

At the same time, there are countries where capital is scarce, growth is real, and assets are available at prices that would be hard to find in the United States. Some of those places come with weak institutions, currency risk, political interference, or poor information. Maybe we are a little crazy to be interested in them.

We are interested anyway.

Start with what everyone is assuming

Investment decisions often rest on a small number of assumptions that have been repeated so many times they stop being treated as assumptions.

Rates will come down. Refinancing will be available. The currency will remain stable. The government will respect the rules. Demand will continue to grow.

We write those things down and look at them directly. We want to know where the numbers came from, how current they are, and what would have to happen for the thesis to stop working.

We also keep looking after we invest. Being early can feel a lot like being wrong, and sometimes it turns out that you were wrong. We would rather find that out from the evidence than from our own attachment to the idea.

Country risk is part of the investment

Frontier markets can be difficult. Records may be incomplete. Local partners may know far more than the foreign investor. Governments can interfere, currencies can move quickly, and getting money out may be harder than getting it in.

None of that can be solved by putting a higher discount rate in a spreadsheet.

We look at how the legal system works in practice, who controls the cash, what happens during a dispute, how the investment is financed, and whether the return still makes sense after accounting for the risks that are actually present.

Sometimes the risks are too large or too difficult to control. Sometimes they are well known, broadly applied, and already reflected in the price. That is where the work becomes interesting.

We use technology heavily

There is more information available than any person can review properly, and much of it is inconsistent, incomplete, or difficult to compare.

We build and use software to collect records, compare markets, test assumptions, and repeat the same analysis when the facts change. This allows us to look at more opportunities and spend more time on the parts that require judgment.

Technology also makes it much easier to produce convincing nonsense. AI can summarize the wrong source, invent a fact, or bury a weak assumption under a polished answer.

We use the tools. We check the work. The investment decision remains ours.

Areas of focus

Where we spend our time.

Private investment research

We study macroeconomic risk, policy credibility, currencies, capital flows, and the assumptions supporting asset prices.

The questions are practical. Where should capital be held? What could cause a market to reprice? Which risks are temporary, and which ones change the investment case?

Our research is intended to lead to a decision, even when the decision is to wait.

Real assets and operations

Real estate is our preferred long-term asset class.

We like assets that are useful, understandable, and capable of producing cash flow. We pay attention to leverage, replacement cost, local supply and demand, operating expenses, property rights, and the quality of the information available.

Real estate also has a way of making bad assumptions obvious. Roofs leak. Tenants leave. Taxes change. Financing comes due.

We invest in property, operating businesses, and technology that can improve how property decisions are made. We will also walk away from real estate when the price does not justify the work or the risk.

Special situations

Some opportunities do not fit neatly into an established mandate.

They may be in an unfamiliar country, involve a complicated structure, or be too small for institutional capital. There may be very little research available. The opportunity may exist because most investors do not have the time, interest, or ability to work through it.

There is usually a reason something looks cheap. We want to know what that reason is.

Every so often, the reason is not good enough.

Selected thinking

A thesis is only useful if it changes what we do.

We publish house views on risks that may affect where we hold capital and how we invest it.

Each one begins with a scenario. We identify the evidence that would support it, the evidence that would weaken it, and the points where we would make a change.

We are not trying to predict every step in advance. We are trying to avoid making the first important decision after everyone else has already reached the same conclusion.

Read the current house view

Contact

Start a conversation.

We are interested in investment opportunities, operating businesses, research, technology, and partnerships that fit the way we think.

Tell us what the opportunity is, why it exists, and what you think other people are missing. It does not need to arrive in a polished presentation.

Point Roberts Capital LLC
30 N Gould St Ste R
Sheridan, WY 82801

(206) 569-5280